- Russia's invasion of Ukraine has upended what air superiority looks like, a US general says.
- Neither Russia nor Ukraine has achieved sustained or substantial air superiority.
- NATO must draw lessons from it to keep its air supremacy, per the top US Air Force general in Europe.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the swift proliferation of drones have transformed what air superiority looks like, according to the top US Air Force general in Europe.
NATO must draw lessons from it if it wants to maintain its own aerial supremacy, Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, said in a paper published in the Æther Journal last month.
"Russia's war in Ukraine reaffirms that air superiority remains job number one," he said, not only because it allows forces to conduct successful air operations but also because it prevents air stalemate like the one seen in Ukraine.
So far in the two-and-a-half war, neither Russia nor Ukraine has achieved sustained or substantial air superiority.
One side is said to have air superiority when it can carry out operations to achieve its goal without excessive resistance from the opponent.
Russia has tried to establish air control over Ukraine — and appeared to have done so momentarily over a limited part of the skies around Avdiivka in Ukraine in February.
But Ukraine has protected its skies, using air-ground defenses, modern aircraft, electronic warfare, and drones — denying Russia air supremacy over its skies.
'Abundant' lessons from Ukraine
According to Hecker, the NATO alliance needs to learn "abundant" lessons from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to avoid the "terrible" cost of a stalemate in the air.
He said this includes deterrence by denial, a strategy that aims to make the aggressor question their ability to achieve their objectives, such as invading a country.
This can be achieved by showing that NATO has the forces with enough training, proficiency, and equipment to forcibly deny the adversary its objectives, he said.
Hecker also said NATO members cannot rely solely on advanced weapons because the emergence of low-cost threats, like drones, makes their use unsustainable.
Ukraine has frequently used its cheap drones, worth a few hundred dollars, to take out high-value Russian military targets, like helicopters and tanks, sometimes worth millions.
Hecker said another lesson from the conflict in Ukraine is that any war between large combat forces that is not resolved in its early stages will turn into an industrial war of attrition.
Despite sending up to 200,000 soldiers into Ukraine in February 2022, Russia failed to take over Ukraine in the early stages of its full-scale invasion, with the conflict still grinding on in the eastern Donbas region two and a half years later.
Finally, Hecker said winning such a war requires economic strength and resilience, adaptability, innovation, political will, and social cohesion.
Hecker said NATO allies have "tangible strengths" in those areas. In the event of a NATO invasion, they would quickly overcome obstacles like slow procurement processes and legislative barriers to interoperability and information sharing.
Ukraine, however, has suffered from delays in Western weapon deliveries and struggled to fend off Russian offensives at multiple stages of the conflict.
"We must address those issues with the same vigor now to create the day-zero capabilities we need to deter and defend in the future," Hecker said.
A dozen air warfare experts, including former fighter pilots and current and former Western military commanders and officers, made similar observations to BI last month.
They said the Ukraine war has underscored how some elements of modern air combat are radically changing.
They added that NATO needed stronger air defenses, innovative drone countermeasures, and fresh basing concepts to confront Russia and that without these, the alliance could face a bloodier conflict should Russia attack a NATO member.